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The demise of Classic Bikes

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paul G:
Anybody want to but a Honda 400/4 550K3 or a Kawasaki Z650 As I am going to live to be 120 but have no job ;) ;)

royhall:
Dr Goldman in the article posted by MCTID has an very simplistic view of the world. What he fails to state, is that most of the company's effected by the IT revolution will slowly transform into different entities not just stay the same and fail like Kodak did. There are many old photo based companies that are still around and thriving such as Fuji. Kodak was just badly managed, simple as that. Its way more likely that companies like Uber that have no assets will disappear in an aggressive takeover. So I think Dr Goldman has plain got it wrong. Anything that has a decreasing customer base and hostile government legislation against it, such as motorcycling, will die out eventually. :(

So this is the heyday, get out there and enjoy it. :)

philward:
What a deep discussion! Often think on the same lines as Dr Goldman. In the 70's we where told that we would all be working 15 hours week - I still think robots/computors will take most jobs but our whole structure of society will have to change as business's have to sell to end of line consumers and without income from jobs, who's going to buy anything! Distribution of money will have to change.
But back to bikes! - we are living in the final stages of enjoying motor cycling - the next generation will be legislated off the road unfortunately. 

Trigger:

--- Quote from: royhall on January 06, 2017, 10:52:57 AM ---
--- Quote from: Trigger on January 06, 2017, 09:53:21 AM ---Very interesting Roy, but I have restored and sold a lot of these bikes over the years and not one of those customers had that bike when they were younger. All my customers just like the look of the classic bike and answer me this, why are people going out and buying Harleys, when they never had them when they were younger ?
Do people go out and buy a 400 year old painting because they had one when they were younger  ;D

--- End quote ---
Like the man said Trig, these were the aspirational bikes back in their youth that maybe they couldn't afford, or parents wouldn't allow? Plus how many young (under 25) people come and buy a 500/4. The point he makes is that although its a strong market right now, the customers are mainly aged people that wont remain long term. After that the classic scene (for motorcycles) is finished. This was his view not mine I should point out.

--- End quote ---

Sold a Blue 400/4 to a 26 year old, a Red 400/4 to a 27 year old and I think Steph 550 is only 25 years old but, have not got a clue why she got into classic bikes.
I recall that CR21 is only 21 years old and just had a look at my records for the past year to find that 80% of the SOHC engines I have built have been to customers under the age of 40.

K2-K6:
Interesting discussion, I was in Kodak for 20yrs so got to see that process happening.

Kodak more or less produced the prototype digital camera but it failed to see or interpret what that future could bring. It was a lot longer process than that which Dr Goldman documents. It was really the rise in computer processing ability coupled with the drop in size and power requirements that came to commercial realisation that brought the original concept to the consumer.
The original view of the dealer seems to be correct. Apart from some niche volumes of trading in vintages bikes there doesn't appear to be much margin in it, this is principally because the supply side is so limited in comparison to gearing up to make new products.
The irony is that it's interesting to us exactly because of that, we are dropping out of the leading commercial trading because we can get what we want without even getting into that whole latest biggest best type scenario that advertising railroads people into.

I've a little detail that a friend gave me that I use to put something of this monetary value into perspective. He bought, under family duress, a people carrier type car for him his wife and three kids, kind of didn't really have the enthusiasm for it but went with it anyway. Two years later, they didn't want it and it lost him £18,000!!!!  on selling it. He really got next to nothing for that amount, his feelings not mine. Now I know I could get quite a bit SOHCige for that money and it most likely wouldn't be going down.

If we are not trading them,  we are buying experiences, how much is that worth?

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