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Parcels from Japan

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taysidedragon:
The current situation regarding Russian airspace is a bit confused, as you might expect. The current NOTAMS, Notices to Airmen, which notify airspace changes, only seem to restrict operators from Ukraine airspace and neighbouring countries. Restrictions to Russian airspace only apply to 160 to 200 nautical miles from the Ukraine border (depends which countries NOTAMS you look at). This is to try and avoid another shooting down incident.

Also, the USA and other countries banned Russian aircraft from flying in their airspace. Russia then banned other countries' aircraft from flying in their airspace in a tit for tat decision. That's purely political, but airlines and insurance companies are avoiding any risk of losing an aircraft and the self-loading cargo(passengers) on board.

USA NOTAM
Source: USA
Reference: Notam KICZ A0005/22
Issued: 24-Feb-22, valid until: Ongoing
Plain English: US operators are prohibited from Russian airspace within 160nm of the FIR boundaries with Ukraine.
SECURITY..UNITED STATES OF AMERICA PROHIBITION FOR SPECIFIED AREAS OF THE MOSCOW(UUWV), SAMARA (UWWW) AND ROSTOV-NA DONU FIR (URRV) FLIGHT INFORMATION REGIONS. THOSE PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABILITY) BELOW ARE PROHIBITED FROM OPERATING AT ALL ALTITUDES IN THE MOSCOW FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) (UUWV), THE SAMARA FIR (UWWW), AND THE ROSTOV-NA DONU FIR (URRV) WITHIN 160NM OF THE BOUNDARIES WITH THE DNIPRO FIR (UKDV), THE SIMFEROPOL FIR (UKFV), AND THE KYIV FIR (UKBV) (INCLUDES THAT PORTION OF THE KYIV UPPER INFORMATION REGION (UIR) (UKBU) AIRSPACE WITHIN THE LATERAL LIMITS OF THE UKDV, UKFV, AND UKBV FIRS) DUE TO SAFETY-OF FLIGHT RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING HOSTILITIES.
A. APPLICABILITY. THIS NOTAM APPLIES TO: ALL U.S. AIR CARRIERS AND COMMERCIAL OPERATORS; ALL PERSONS EXERCISING THE PRIVILEGES OF AN AIRMAN CERTIFICATE ISSUED BY THE FAA, EXCEPT SUCH PERSONS OPERATING U.S.-REGISTERED AIRCRAFT FOR A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER; AND ALL OPERATORS OF CIVIL AIRCRAFT REGISTERED IN THE UNITED STATES, EXCEPT WHEN THE OPERATOR OF SUCH AIRCRAFT IS A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER.
B. PERMITTED OPERATIONS. THIS NOTAM DOES NOT PROHIBIT PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A (APPLICABILITY) ABOVE FROM CONDUCTING FLIGHT OPERATIONS IN THE ABOVE-NAMED AREA WHEN SUCH OPERATIONS ARE AUTHORIZED EITHER BY ANOTHER AGENCY OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE FAA OR BY A DEVIATION, EXEMPTION, OR OTHER AUTHORIZATION ISSUED BY THE FAA ADMINISTRATOR. OPERATORS MUST CALL THE FAA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS CENTER AT 202-267-3333 TO INITIATE COORDINATION FOR FAA AUTHORIZATION TO CONDUCT OPERATIONS.
C. EMERGENCY SITUATIONS. IN AN EMERGENCY REQUIRING IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND OF AN AIRCRAFT MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY.
THIS NOTAM IS AN EMERGENCY ORDER ISSUED UNDER 49 USC 40113(A), 44701(A)(5), AND 46105(C). ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AT: http://HTTPS://WWW.FAA.GOV/AIR_TRAFFIC/PUBLICATIONS/US_RESTRICTIONS/.
SFC - FL999, 24 FEB 19:30 2022 UNTIL PERM. CREATED: 24 FEB 19:23 2022

Lobo:
Interesting topic, with the ultimate answers dictated by commercial decisions as you can certainly get from Japan to the UK avoiding Russia.

The top pic is from Flight Radar 24, which certainly shows how quiet Russian airspace is right now - unsurprisingly!

The lower pic illustrates the Great Circle route (ie shortest distance) between the two points, noting the distance to be 9600km (5200nm). If, however you choose to operate via (eg) Dubai, the distance goes up to a whopping 13500km (7300nm), giving any accountant an attack of the vapours.

An awful lot of freight is not necessarily carried by dedicated freight aircraft, but rather ‘underfloor’ on pax types: in my past life we typically carried 20+ tonnes of meat from Melbourne to Dubai on our B787 pax service. The point is; if the pax service is compromised through war, covid… whatever, then freight will be too on those contracts.

So, I guess, costs will be much higher due re-routes, and curtailed services may be stopping other freightings, suggesting no definitive answer?

MCTID:
My Neighbour is a TUI Pilot.......as things improved after the Lockdown and he started Flying again regularly (before things started to get busy again with passenger flights), he was flying Freight to USA.....TUI had taken the seats out of a lot of their Aircraft as Freight was becoming the norm.....and the only thing paying the bills.

I don't know whether things have changed or if TUI are still flying Freight....rather than peeps.

Lobo:
Bloody glad to hear it Alan - TUI pays my pension 😂. (started out with Britannia / Manchester - the good old days)

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