The ignition isn't common to 3/4 and so has half-a coil, point etc involved in each .... suggesting they are ok up the line.
I've had plug caps give similar to this for individual items before. Dead cylinder at cold, chiming in when running, to ultimately run ok when all up to temp. One of those was a disconnect from HT lead in top of cap. Jumping across effectively when it got going. Took some time to find that
Possible to swap #1 & 4 leads over ? (Enough length available ? ) to give functionality check either much work.
Start it in the dark, then look for "tracking" sparks around caps snd HT leads on 3 & 4 that may give you indication of leak that is improved by heat etc.
If the problem stayed where it was, that would point more at carbs.
Assuming ignition checks out:-
Cylinder cold, is either too little fuel or too much if ignition is OK. Before starting, can you check drains on 3 & 4 float bowls to see if they are dry ?
Or, turn off fuel when hot to run a few minutes with it no supply, then start next day cold WITHOUT turning fuel on, this to check for flooding risk. See if they all chime in together.