The demise of Classic Bikes

[royhall]

I had a short discussion yesterday with the manager in my local bike shop about the merits of classic bike ownership. As he put a different spin on things, I thought I would share it as a discussion point on the forum.

He is of the firm opinion that owning classic bikes such as ours is the worst financial investment for the future that anyone could make.

He points out that since I started on bikes in 1975 at the age of 16, that the bikes we have in our collections today, were back then aspirational. And let’s be honest, who in 1975 didn’t want a Z1. As my age group gets older and dies off, the younger generation will want the bikes that were aspirational to them such as Ducati 916 etc. Therefore there will be many of the bikes we think as classics for sale and the prices will plummet.

He also points out that very few youngsters are getting into motorbikes these days so there will be far fewer customers for our classics anyway. That’s a point that most of us can verify, the Isle of Man boat to the Classic TT is like a Saga Cruise. He thinks the reasons for this are many, but mainly due to legislation and the fact that teenagers are no longer around motorcycles to the extent that we were. Back then many people owned a bike for transport to work as cars were not yet affordable. He thinks that is why my age group still want Triumphs as that’s what our fathers and uncles rode, again aspirational.

He must believe what he says as this shop did have a few restored classics around that have now been sold off. On that point he thinks that most regular classics of the 60/70’s era have found their price ceiling and it is a good time to sell them off whilst there are still loads of customers around.

In my opinion he makes a few fair points, but as a major dealer he is probably only looking at the financial aspects. What price can you put on the enjoyment and interest they provide in the years up to our demise. Plus a lot of our collections wouldn’t be sold whatever, as we can’t stand to see them go. So who cares about the value after were gone?

What do you guys think?

[Trigger]

Very interesting Roy, but I have restored and sold a lot of these bikes over the years and not one of those customers had that bike when they were younger. All my customers just like the look of the classic bike and answer me this, why are people going out and buying Harleys, when they never had them when they were younger ?
Do people go out and buy a 400 year old painting because they had one when they were younger 

[Nurse Julie]

Some very interesting points there Roy. I think the 'value' of these old bikes is far more than monetary. Its sometimes about reliving ones youth, or having something you didn't have but always wanted. Does it really matter if the price goes down in the future, who cares, you can't take a bike with you when you die, nor can you take the money in your bank account. That's why personally, a bike is something that should be used and enjoyed regardless of future monetary values, as enjoyment of something you really love is priceless.

[Green1]

I was thinking about this awhile ago and he probably makes a good point.
It won't be long and you old guys  will be finding the 750's to heavy and then probably be selling them on flooding the market.
The 80's bikes are already starting to rocket in value so there heading in the same direction.

I feel like I must be the last of an era that got to experience proper bike shops.There used to be one not far from me that was like going back in time small and cramped with boxes and bits everywhere with overflowing pigeon holes.No mater what you wanted he would have it or get it.The internet auction sites soon put an end to that.     

I have also noticed there is a lack of young bikers.They seem to go straight into cars and I believe this is playing a part in the lack of quality drivers out there.There is a lot to be said for starting out on two wheels it makes you appreciate road conditions and how the weather plays its part.

I must be old before my time going by the bikes I'v had and got but who cares I enjoy them and that's all that matters. 


Mick

[Johnwebley]

Some very interesting points there Roy. I think the 'value' of these old bikes is more far more than monetary. Its sometimes about reliving ones youth, or having something you didn't have but always wanted. Does it really matter if the price goes down in the future, who cares, you can't take a bike with you when you die, nor can you take the money in your bank account. That's why personally, a bike is something that should be used and enjoyed regardless of future monetary values, as enjoyment of something you really love is priceless.

 I agree with the nurse,always !!!

 but the "genre" of classic has become a popular style of bikes,large sports bikes are loosing sales,custom style and cruisers ,not to mention the "chelsey tractor" GS bikes seem to be increasing,
 some time ago Kawasaki did a retro Zepher,same as Honda CB1300 etc,a brand new "classic" looker,,
all our sohc are still very capable bikes,just require a little more looking after,with the advantage that most of the depreciation has gone,so should be appreciating,

there should be a market always,for good classic bikes,maybe not at Franks prices,but who here is holding out to sell a sohc for £25k
in 5 years time?
get out and enjoy it while your young and fit enough,lots of peeps falling of the perch in their 50's now !!

[Chris400F]

Some very interesting points there Roy. I think the 'value' of these old bikes is more far more than monetary. Its sometimes about reliving ones youth, or having something you didn't have but always wanted. Does it really matter if the price goes down in the future, who cares, you can't take a bike with you when you die, nor can you take the money in your bank account. That's why personally, a bike is something that should be used and enjoyed regardless of future monetary values, as enjoyment of something you really love is priceless.

Julie has hit the nail on the head for me also. Owning my 400 is exactly about reliving my youth, I didn't have one then but always wanted one.
For me the bike is not an investment, but then I only have the one and not a shed full of them.
My children are not remotely interested in bikes so it is unlikely that it will be passed on to either of them.
As for young people riding bikes, I agree there seem to be far fewer than when I was a lad. But back then you could just buy a bike and ride it; nowadays there is a seemingly ever increasing amount of training you have to undergo before you can even turn a wheel on the road, so hardly an incentive.

[royhall]

Very interesting Roy, but I have restored and sold a lot of these bikes over the years and not one of those customers had that bike when they were younger. All my customers just like the look of the classic bike and answer me this, why are people going out and buying Harleys, when they never had them when they were younger ?
Do people go out and buy a 400 year old painting because they had one when they were younger 

Like the man said Trig, these were the aspirational bikes back in their youth that maybe they couldn't afford, or parents wouldn't allow? Plus how many young (under 25) people come and buy a 500/4. The point he makes is that although its a strong market right now, the customers are mainly aged people that wont remain long term. After that the classic scene (for motorcycles) is finished. This was his view not mine I should point out.

[Seabeowner]

For one or two here it’s a business, but for many it’s a hobby. And hobbies often cost money, but are very rewarding, if you get my meaning? And among hobbies it is very versatile one with many different sides. (practical skills, mobility, holidays, social....) Enjoy it while you can you are only old once!
Certainly a goodly number of importers seem to view the UK as a place to sell at a premium. DK must have bought in many thousands of bikes.
My view is, pick your bikes primarily for using and the hobby and possibly make one choice as a possible long term gainer if you have the space. Many here have the knowledge to choose a genuine bike, so we don’t get fleeced. Always remember eggs and baskets. The Honda 500 bought in 1974 cost about £700 and according to the inflation calculator it is approaching £8k so not much real gain over 43 years.
Roy, I see you have a T100C. Had a new one before the Hondas. I spent 2 years defending Brit bikes against the Jap onslaught, but had to admit defeat with this one.

[royhall]

Cant really compare the Triumph's to the Honda's as there's really a space of 30/40 years between designs. Triumphs are okay but they really are basic old fashioned things, where the design in the Honda's is still mainly relevant today.

I do wonder though where motorcycling in general is heading. I only know 2 youngsters that are into bikes, and both of those are motorcross riders and don't ride on the road. They consider it to be way too dangerous. That appears to sum up the attitude of the younger people to bikes, and who can blame them as there must be a least double the traffic these days than there was in the 1970's. And when young lads view motorcross to be safer than riding on the road, I think our hobby will (as the man said) die out with my generation.

By the way, the government is proposing to make getting a bike licence even harder than it already is. Another nail in the coffin?

[Nurse Julie]

It is such a shame that biking appears to be a dying past time generally for youngsters. I have been riding bikes since I passed my test in 1979 and I have had an absolute ball over the years. In all those years I have only been without a bike for 3 years, lived in a flat,( couldn't get it up the stairs !!!) and life felt grim. It is one of those past times that really makes you feel good and need not cost a fortune. And like many others on here I have had plenty of Brit bikes, jap bikes, old bikes, new bikes, cheap and expensive but as long as it started, I was happy. But, we have had some incredibly talented youngsters joining the forum recently and even if they just buy a SOHC and café racer it at least it means they are out and about and the bikes are still in use.

[philward]

Interesting discussion! I restore and ride as a hobby so no plans to sell anyway at this point. One of the points that I have thought about is the future in driverless cars - I know where talking a few years off but at some point, vehicles where the driver/rider has to make decisions (and 99% of accidents are human error) will be legislated off the road - or at least, insurance will become unaffordable. Then classic bike will become museum pieces and a glut of any sort of previously rideable bikes will cause a drop in value due to supply and demand. We are talking another 20 years off and hence won't affect an old git like me (as I'll be in my 80's if I'm still here!) but  this will have a big bearing on the long term values,

[hairygit]

Let's face it, successive governments and tg E.U. in particular would quite happily see motorcycles being ridden on public roads completely banned. When I started riding, you could still get a provisional licence, insurance, stick L plates on any solo bike up to 250cc, and ride indefinitely with no test or other hassles, and carry a passenger if they held a full licence! Things started going downhill badly from the early 80's, max 125cc, 12bhp max for new 125's, and a 2 part test, and a 2 year limit for riding on L plates, no passengers etc. Then more regulations, C.B.T. before you could even hit the road, and increasingly complicated and expensive tests. These days it's a nightmare trying to start out on 2 wheels, no wonder youngsters these days don't bother, far cheaper and easier to get into a tin box and hit the road. It will be even worse in years to come, these days youngsters list after shitreon saxo's and similar crap, very few want, or can afford to get into bikes. Those of us with kids today have a duty to get them interested in bikes, Pops 400 is doing a fine job with young Jess, my own daughter is starting to pinch my Honda 90 to ride across the fields behind us, she's 14 and has a healthy interest in bikes, and despite mother in laws irrational hatred of bikes, she is determined to ride on the road as soon as she legally can, and I will do everything possible to ensure she is able to. I don't view bikes as investment potential, they are the best and most fun way from A to B, whatever the weather. We are as has been mentioned the last group of road users that had real freedom, the nanny state and safety killjoys are fast eroding the fun younger generations can have. The future really does look bleak for motorcycling for future generations!

[MCTID]

Just looking at the latest range of Triumph Bonnevilles............£10K+ for a half decent twin which most owners have to buy a new seat to make it any good for more than a 100 mile ride; new exhaust system to give it any real performance and an engine remap to actually make it deliver what it's capable of.........say £12k all in. Take it out of the Dealers Showroom and you have lost £4K to £5K in the same day with depreciation and Tax if you wanted to sell it again.

Or you could buy a decent older bike.....like a 1970-76 CB750 for £5K to £8K, or a CB 500/550/CB400 for £4K to £6K and run it for a year or two and probably get back what you paid for it.........which is a lot better than keeping your dosh in the Bank earning 0.25% interest (legalised theft in my view).

The Dealer may have some fair points regarding long term values..........but if you have ever been to the Pioneer Run (19 March this year from Epsom Racecourse to Brighton) just check out the eye watering prices some of those pre 1914 bikes change hands for........which makes a very powerful argument supporting long term values for highly prized models.

I'll keep buying, selling and riding RHS thank you very much !

[MCTID]

Talking about the future.......these are the predictions of Dr Robert Goldman. I have no idea if he's right or if he's a nutcase, but it certainly get's you thinking.......probably more that that Bike Dealer who Roy Hall was talking to:                                                                                                                                                                                                                  FUTURE PREDICTIONS:
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognise faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
www.DrBobGoldman.com
World Chairman-International Medical Commission
Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M
Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame
Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine
President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)
Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors
FREE Health Longevity info newsletter at: www.WorldHealth.net

[Tomb]

I can understand people who put lots of money into restorations that would like to think they are then worth (nearly) what they have put into them, it helps us justify spending that much money. However if you restore a bike for your own benefit surely you will never get that money back as you will want to keep the bike.

Personally I really couldn't give a monkeys how much my bike is worth, even to the point that I would like it to be worth nothing, that way if I need parts someone will sell parts at what they are REALLY worth rather than some stupidly inflated price because its for an expensive exotic classic. I ride my old bikes because I like them and because I can afford them.

As well as Hondas I have old XS1100's, they are the same era as CBX1000s, Z1000s, but much more usable in real riding conditions, there are still loads of them in use on the road, (the Germans have 5 different clubs just for XS1100s) BUT don't hold a tenth of their counterparts' value. Some of the 4000 members of the US XS1100 forum complain about the low value but I like the fact they are so low valued, if they became valuable the prices of spares would rocket.

I've owned my CB550/CB500s for 32 years, bought when folk were giving them away for silly money as the new GPZ ranges were popular. Now prices for spares are shooting up as they have become popular for the latest craze of Brat Style bikes, I can't wait for that craze to fizzle out so I can get back to cheap parts again.

I have to agree with the dealer.