The demise of Classic Bikes

[paul G]

Anybody want to but a Honda 400/4 550K3 or a Kawasaki Z650 As I am going to live to be 120 but have no job

[royhall]

Dr Goldman in the article posted by MCTID has an very simplistic view of the world. What he fails to state, is that most of the company's effected by the IT revolution will slowly transform into different entities not just stay the same and fail like Kodak did. There are many old photo based companies that are still around and thriving such as Fuji. Kodak was just badly managed, simple as that. Its way more likely that companies like Uber that have no assets will disappear in an aggressive takeover. So I think Dr Goldman has plain got it wrong. Anything that has a decreasing customer base and hostile government legislation against it, such as motorcycling, will die out eventually.

So this is the heyday, get out there and enjoy it.

[philward]

What a deep discussion! Often think on the same lines as Dr Goldman. In the 70's we where told that we would all be working 15 hours week - I still think robots/computors will take most jobs but our whole structure of society will have to change as business's have to sell to end of line consumers and without income from jobs, who's going to buy anything! Distribution of money will have to change.
But back to bikes! - we are living in the final stages of enjoying motor cycling - the next generation will be legislated off the road unfortunately. 

[Trigger]

Very interesting Roy, but I have restored and sold a lot of these bikes over the years and not one of those customers had that bike when they were younger. All my customers just like the look of the classic bike and answer me this, why are people going out and buying Harleys, when they never had them when they were younger ?
Do people go out and buy a 400 year old painting because they had one when they were younger 

Like the man said Trig, these were the aspirational bikes back in their youth that maybe they couldn't afford, or parents wouldn't allow? Plus how many young (under 25) people come and buy a 500/4. The point he makes is that although its a strong market right now, the customers are mainly aged people that wont remain long term. After that the classic scene (for motorcycles) is finished. This was his view not mine I should point out.

Sold a Blue 400/4 to a 26 year old, a Red 400/4 to a 27 year old and I think Steph 550 is only 25 years old but, have not got a clue why she got into classic bikes.
I recall that CR21 is only 21 years old and just had a look at my records for the past year to find that 80% of the SOHC engines I have built have been to customers under the age of 40.

[K2-K6]

Interesting discussion, I was in Kodak for 20yrs so got to see that process happening.

Kodak more or less produced the prototype digital camera but it failed to see or interpret what that future could bring. It was a lot longer process than that which Dr Goldman documents. It was really the rise in computer processing ability coupled with the drop in size and power requirements that came to commercial realisation that brought the original concept to the consumer.
The original view of the dealer seems to be correct. Apart from some niche volumes of trading in vintages bikes there doesn't appear to be much margin in it, this is principally because the supply side is so limited in comparison to gearing up to make new products.
The irony is that it's interesting to us exactly because of that, we are dropping out of the leading commercial trading because we can get what we want without even getting into that whole latest biggest best type scenario that advertising railroads people into.

I've a little detail that a friend gave me that I use to put something of this monetary value into perspective. He bought, under family duress, a people carrier type car for him his wife and three kids, kind of didn't really have the enthusiasm for it but went with it anyway. Two years later, they didn't want it and it lost him £18,000!!!!  on selling it. He really got next to nothing for that amount, his feelings not mine. Now I know I could get quite a bit SOHCige for that money and it most likely wouldn't be going down.

If we are not trading them,  we are buying experiences, how much is that worth?

[Trigger]

Anybody want to but a Honda 400/4 550K3 or a Kawasaki Z650 As I am going to live to be 120 but have no job

I will give you 99p for your 400/4 Paul 

[Johnwebley]

some interesting progress from our favorite manufacturer


https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=honda+self+balancing+motorcycle


or

 how computers have progressed

[royhall]

Anybody want to but a Honda 400/4 550K3 or a Kawasaki Z650 As I am going to live to be 120 but have no job

I will give you 99p for your 400/4 Paul 

Dont do it Paul, I will give you two quid.

[matthewmosse]

I got into sohc hondas because at the time they were cheap and plentifull, and I liked the look. No way were 500/4s a bike anyone I knew aspired to. Classic bikes, hmmm, me and my wife have always both liked them looks wise, even before we met. The british stuff is evocotive but a bit too involved and high priced. Its got nothing to do with having aspired to the bikes at a younger age but rather that they are fun and cheap to run. And this is a market that may well grow. My cousin had no bike interest and is the same age as me, 2 years ago he visited me for the first time in 15 years, he now has 2 classics of his own, a cb200 and a yamaha yr1 or somesutch, from the 60's as well as having given his first bike to his brother ( a honda cb100) and he's sold another cb200, thats after just a few gos on my rebel 125 2 years ago. Prices may fluctuate, but there are vast markets opening up where these bikes never went before. That cousin who I corrupted to bikes, he shipped the bike for his brother to Poland. Over there there are few classic bikes, not a lot of motorbikes there at all when I visited and then they were rather clunky looking old iron cirtain things of antiquated desighn. For a lot of us younger generation the modern bikes just don't appeal, looks or technology. If I want technology I get a car, stereo, gps all that. The appeal of the bike, hell the last time I had to call rac for a clutch issue, I had rebuilt the clutch roadside out of boredom by the time the rac van was near, ended up calling to say don't bother. Classic bikes appeal is wider than rose tinted specs of a generation who either saw them in shop windows or were lucky enough to own one back in the day. I spent enough time drooling over new bikes in the local stealership - mostly Suzuki and Yamaha, but ultimately the combination of poor service and low budgett meant older bikes that would never have been allowed near their showroom got a look in, I never looked back, rather each vehicle has been older than the last, the classic bug has bitten and I even have 1940's iron in the shed now. Look wider, at the classic steam and car rallies, plenty of youngsters attending who maybe cannot afford the older kit but who'd jump on a bike like the 500/4 for the classic look plus the fact its small enough not to need a garage, basic enough for a novice to be in with a shout at getting it running and doesn't need special tools. I once worked out there were about 14 tools needed to copletely strip my kh125 down to re paintable lumps, all from a very basic £20 toolbox, and the jobs could be done in an afternoon. Thats an accessible hobby.
Funny thing is though, I'm near broke these days but still couldn't care less about the value of the sohc bikes I own. I'd not sell even though I cannot afford to tax or insure them. They mean too much to me and it would probably be a case of once they were gone they'd be out of reach for the forseeable. Being broke is a tempoary setback due to childcare and unemployment leading to self employment. Selling my precious bikes - over my dead body ( well the 500/4 sidecar and the kh125 anyway. 1978 bmw on the other hand - those can go.

[paul G]

Anybody want to but a Honda 400/4 550K3 or a Kawasaki Z650 As I am going to live to be 120 but have no job

I will give you 99p for your 400/4 Paul 

Dont do it Paul, I will give you two quid.

That is going to stretch Triggers wallet

[Trigger]

Anybody want to but a Honda 400/4 550K3 or a Kawasaki Z650 As I am going to live to be 120 but have no job

I will give you 99p for your 400/4 Paul 

Dont do it Paul, I will give you two quid.

That is going to stretch Triggers wallet

Never had enough money to own a wallet Paul Spent it all on brake lines 

[Binman180]

I don't know, I think there will always be a market for things like this. People are always drawn in by the fasions and relics of years gone. I'm 25 now, owned my 400f for 2 and a half years I guess and I wanted a 400 for a further few years before that, got swizzed for this one, what i was told was meant to be a light resto turned into replace anything engine related. It's my second bike after my honda xl varadero 125.

I wanted this bike as soon as I watched this video of a 350f for some reason: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emjPQhb8-nc

Obviously not because of nostalgia and noone in my family rides bikes other than my grandfather but he gave it all up before I was born. I just loved the look and I wanted to have something I could work on, It's been a pain and I've wanted to watch it burn a few times like anyone with a project but I love riding it, the sound, the smell and I love the look of it (I do wish it was a bit more powerful though...). plenty of my friends like it too and we have apprentices at work that are 16/17 and love it also despite there being lots of newer, nice, bigger and faster bikes in the parking area.

A friend of mine younger than me, his first "car" was a Land rover series IIa back when he turned 17. I don't know where he drew his inspiration for that, But it's pretty cool. I guess my point is that fads come and go certainly but I can't see the market for old classic bikes such as the ones on this forum will crashing to the point of worthlessness. I've come to terms with the fact it's not worth anywhere near as much as I've spent.

[haynes66]

although there has been a huge downturn in younger riders coming into the biking world, it's still encouraging to see many new people coming into biking because of the whole fashion thing engendered by  "the bike shed" and other hipster/brat companies. all of a sudden it's cool to be 'cafe'.   as far as classics are concerned though, it's a good thing if prices have stabilized a little so people like you and me can still just about afford them. but as julie says, bikes are meant to be ridden, not stored away. all my bikes, including classics have always been ridden and i will only sell them when another project comes along or i'm too old to ride.

[Sgt.Pinback]

I had a short discussion yesterday with the manager in my local bike shop about the merits of classic bike ownership. As he put a different spin on things, I thought I would share it as a discussion point on the forum.

He is of the firm opinion that owning classic bikes such as ours is the worst financial investment for the future that anyone could make.

He points out that since I started on bikes in 1975 at the age of 16, that the bikes we have in our collections today, were back then aspirational. And let’s be honest, who in 1975 didn’t want a Z1. As my age group gets older and dies off, the younger generation will want the bikes that were aspirational to them such as Ducati 916 etc. Therefore there will be many of the bikes we think as classics for sale and the prices will plummet.

He also points out that very few youngsters are getting into motorbikes these days so there will be far fewer customers for our classics anyway. That’s a point that most of us can verify, the Isle of Man boat to the Classic TT is like a Saga Cruise. He thinks the reasons for this are many, but mainly due to legislation and the fact that teenagers are no longer around motorcycles to the extent that we were. Back then many people owned a bike for transport to work as cars were not yet affordable. He thinks that is why my age group still want Triumphs as that’s what our fathers and uncles rode, again aspirational.

He must believe what he says as this shop did have a few restored classics around that have now been sold off. On that point he thinks that most regular classics of the 60/70’s era have found their price ceiling and it is a good time to sell them off whilst there are still loads of customers around.

In my opinion he makes a few fair points, but as a major dealer he is probably only looking at the financial aspects. What price can you put on the enjoyment and interest they provide in the years up to our demise. Plus a lot of our collections wouldn’t be sold whatever, as we can’t stand to see them go. So who cares about the value after were gone?

What do you guys think?

The same people/generation that buy 70th classics buy new bikes.

That man has the wrong profession. He's selling what no one wants in a few years.
Either new or used.

Worst invest is buying a new bike.

[MrDavo]

I doubt many people alive had a Brough Superior when they were younger, but they do seem to be worth a boatload of money.